Monastir vs Stade Tunisien Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Monastir vs Stade Tunisien
Model pick: Monastir (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 0.48
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Monastir | Stade Tunisien |
|---|
| League position | #5 (1 pts) | #8 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Monastir shown at home, Stade Tunisien shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Monastir — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 51% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Stade Tunisien — last 5
LLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Monastir (home) | Stade Tunisien (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 51% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 42% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 36%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 0.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Monastir or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Stade Tunisien or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Monastir clean sheet | 62% |
| Stade Tunisien clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Monastir is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Monastir are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Monastir vs Stade Tunisien — FAQ
Who will win Monastir vs Stade Tunisien?
Our statistical model makes Monastir the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Monastir 44%, draw 36%, Stade Tunisien 20%.
Will both teams score in Monastir vs Stade Tunisien?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Monastir vs Stade Tunisien?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Monastir and 0.48 for Stade Tunisien — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Monastir vs Stade Tunisien?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (23%). Double chance for Monastir or draw is 82%.