Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama
Model pick: Yokohama (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.42
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Montedio Yamagata | Yokohama |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #4 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Montedio Yamagata shown at home, Yokohama shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Montedio Yamagata — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Yokohama — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Montedio Yamagata (home) | Yokohama (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.3 / 1.3 goals per game) | 6-0-3 in 9 (1.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Yokohama or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Montedio Yamagata clean sheet | 24% |
| Yokohama clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yokohama is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Yokohama edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama — FAQ
Who will win Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama?
Our statistical model makes Yokohama the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 31%, draw 27%, Yokohama 42%.
Will both teams score in Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Montedio Yamagata and 1.42 for Yokohama — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Montedio Yamagata or draw is 57%.