Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
Model pick: Phoenix Rising (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 2.08
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Monterey Bay | Phoenix Rising |
|---|
| League position | #12 (17 pts) | #10 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Monterey Bay shown at home, Phoenix Rising shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Monterey Bay — last 5
LLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Phoenix Rising — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Monterey Bay (home) | Phoenix Rising (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-5 in 11 (1.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 2-4-5 in 11 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 2.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (8%) |
| Double chance — Monterey Bay or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Phoenix Rising or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Monterey Bay clean sheet | 12% |
| Phoenix Rising clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Phoenix Rising is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Phoenix Rising edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising — FAQ
Who will win Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?
Our statistical model makes Phoenix Rising the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Monterey Bay 31%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising 44%.
Will both teams score in Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Monterey Bay and 2.08 for Phoenix Rising — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (8%). Double chance for Monterey Bay or draw is 53%.