Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio
Model pick: Monterosi Tuscia (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 0.91
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Monterosi Tuscia | Gubbio |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Monterosi Tuscia shown at home, Gubbio shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Monterosi Tuscia — last 5
DLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Gubbio — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Monterosi Tuscia (home) | Gubbio (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 44% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Monterosi Tuscia or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Gubbio or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Monterosi Tuscia clean sheet | 40% |
| Gubbio clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Monterosi Tuscia is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Monterosi Tuscia are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio — FAQ
Who will win Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio?
Our statistical model makes Monterosi Tuscia the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Monterosi Tuscia 37%, draw 32%, Gubbio 31%.
Will both teams score in Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Monterosi Tuscia and 0.91 for Gubbio — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Monterosi Tuscia vs Gubbio?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Monterosi Tuscia or draw is 66%.