Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese
Model pick: Pianese (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 0.97
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Monterosi Tuscia | Pianese |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Monterosi Tuscia shown at home, Pianese shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Monterosi Tuscia — last 5
LLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Pianese — last 5
DWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 22% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Monterosi Tuscia (home) | Pianese (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 22% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Monterosi Tuscia or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Pianese or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Monterosi Tuscia clean sheet | 38% |
| Pianese clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pianese is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Despite playing away, Pianese edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese — FAQ
Who will win Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese?
Our statistical model makes Pianese the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Monterosi Tuscia 34%, draw 32%, Pianese 35%.
Will both teams score in Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese?
Expected goals are 0.95 for Monterosi Tuscia and 0.97 for Pianese — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Monterosi Tuscia vs Pianese?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (15%). Double chance for Monterosi Tuscia or draw is 65%.