Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey
Model pick: Montijo (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Montijo | Cabeza del Buey |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Montijo shown at home, Cabeza del Buey shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Montijo — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 28% of home games go over 2.5.
Cabeza del Buey — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Montijo (home) | Cabeza del Buey (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 28% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 47% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Montijo or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Cabeza del Buey or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Montijo clean sheet | 36% |
| Cabeza del Buey clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Montijo is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Montijo are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey — FAQ
Who will win Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey?
Our statistical model makes Montijo the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Montijo 39%, draw 29%, Cabeza del Buey 32%.
Will both teams score in Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Montijo and 1.03 for Cabeza del Buey — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Montijo vs Cabeza del Buey?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Montijo or draw is 69%.