Montpellier vs Dijon Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Montpellier vs Dijon
Model pick: Montpellier (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.72
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Montpellier | Dijon |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 1.2 |
*Montpellier shown at home, Dijon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Montpellier — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Dijon — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Montpellier (home) | Dijon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Alexandre Mendy (12) | – |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Montpellier or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Dijon or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 49% |
| Dijon clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Montpellier is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Montpellier are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Montpellier vs Dijon — FAQ
Who will win Montpellier vs Dijon?
Our statistical model makes Montpellier the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Montpellier 48%, draw 28%, Dijon 24%.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Dijon?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Montpellier vs Dijon?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Montpellier and 0.72 for Dijon — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Montpellier vs Dijon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Montpellier or draw is 79%.