Montreal Impact vs Charlotte Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Montreal Impact vs Charlotte
Model pick: Montreal Impact (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Montreal Impact | Charlotte |
|---|
| League position | #11 (15 pts) | #6 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Montreal Impact shown at home, Charlotte shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Montreal Impact — last 5
DWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Charlotte — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Montreal Impact (home) | Charlotte (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-4 in 6 (1.0 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Prince-Osei Owusu (13) | Pep Biel (10) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Montreal Impact or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Charlotte or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Montreal Impact clean sheet | 26% |
| Charlotte clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Montreal Impact is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Montreal Impact are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Montreal Impact vs Charlotte — FAQ
Who will win Montreal Impact vs Charlotte?
Our statistical model makes Montreal Impact the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Montreal Impact 40%, draw 26%, Charlotte 34%.
Will both teams score in Montreal Impact vs Charlotte?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Montreal Impact vs Charlotte?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Montreal Impact and 1.33 for Charlotte — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Montreal Impact vs Charlotte?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Montreal Impact or draw is 65%.