Montreal Impact vs D.C. United Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Montreal Impact vs D.C. United
Model pick: Montreal Impact (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.72 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Montreal Impact | D.C. United |
|---|
| League position | #11 (15 pts) | #9 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Montreal Impact shown at home, D.C. United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Montreal Impact — last 5
WDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
D.C. United — last 5
LDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Montreal Impact (home) | D.C. United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-4-2 in 8 (1.2 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Prince-Osei Owusu (10) | Tai Baribo (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.72 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Montreal Impact or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — D.C. United or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Montreal Impact clean sheet | 30% |
| D.C. United clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Montreal Impact is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Montreal Impact are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Montreal Impact vs D.C. United — FAQ
Who will win Montreal Impact vs D.C. United?
Our statistical model makes Montreal Impact the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Montreal Impact 44%, draw 26%, D.C. United 30%.
Will both teams score in Montreal Impact vs D.C. United?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Montreal Impact vs D.C. United?
Expected goals are 1.72 for Montreal Impact and 1.19 for D.C. United — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Montreal Impact vs D.C. United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Montreal Impact or draw is 74%.