Montreal Impact vs New England Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Montreal Impact vs New England
Model pick: Montreal Impact (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Montreal Impact | New England |
|---|
| League position | #11 (15 pts) | #4 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Montreal Impact shown at home, New England shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Montreal Impact — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
New England — last 5
WLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Montreal Impact (home) | New England (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-4 in 6 (0.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 64% |
| Top scorer | Prince-Osei Owusu (9) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Montreal Impact or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — New England or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Montreal Impact clean sheet | 29% |
| New England clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Montreal Impact is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Montreal Impact are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Montreal Impact vs New England — FAQ
Who will win Montreal Impact vs New England?
Our statistical model makes Montreal Impact the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Montreal Impact 44%, draw 26%, New England 30%.
Will both teams score in Montreal Impact vs New England?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Montreal Impact vs New England?
Expected goals are 1.63 for Montreal Impact and 1.25 for New England — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Montreal Impact vs New England?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Montreal Impact or draw is 71%.