Monza vs Udinese Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Monza vs Udinese
Model pick: Udinese (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.23
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Monza | Udinese |
|---|
| League position | #20 (0 pts) | #8 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
*Monza shown at home, Udinese shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Monza — last 5
LWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Udinese — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Monza (home) | Udinese (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 51% |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Monza or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Udinese or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Monza clean sheet | 29% |
| Udinese clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Udinese is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Udinese edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Monza vs Udinese — FAQ
Who will win Monza vs Udinese?
Our statistical model makes Udinese the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Monza 30%, draw 29%, Udinese 40%.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Udinese?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Monza vs Udinese?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Monza and 1.23 for Udinese — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Monza vs Udinese?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Monza or draw is 61%.