Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow
Model pick: Naprzod Jedrzejow (68%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 6.38 – 11.29
Total goals: 17.7
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Moravia Morawica | Naprzod Jedrzejow |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
*Moravia Morawica shown at home, Naprzod Jedrzejow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Moravia Morawica — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Naprzod Jedrzejow — last 5
DWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Moravia Morawica (home) | Naprzod Jedrzejow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 60% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (6.38 vs 11.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 6-8 (8%) |
| Double chance — Moravia Morawica or draw (1X) | 35% |
| Double chance — Naprzod Jedrzejow or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Moravia Morawica clean sheet | 0% |
| Naprzod Jedrzejow clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Naprzod Jedrzejow is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Naprzod Jedrzejow edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow — FAQ
Who will win Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?
Our statistical model makes Naprzod Jedrzejow the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Moravia Morawica 19%, draw 13%, Naprzod Jedrzejow 68%.
Will both teams score in Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?
Expected goals are 6.38 for Moravia Morawica and 11.29 for Naprzod Jedrzejow — about 17.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Moravia Morawica vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 6-8 (8%). Double chance for Moravia Morawica or draw is 35%.