Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
Model pick: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
42%
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Moravia Morawica | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Moravia Morawica shown at home, Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Moravia Morawica — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski — last 5
WDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Moravia Morawica (home) | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Moravia Morawica or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Moravia Morawica clean sheet | 28% |
| Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski — FAQ
Who will win Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski?
Our statistical model makes Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Moravia Morawica 29%, draw 29%, Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 42%.
Will both teams score in Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski?
Expected goals are 0.95 for Moravia Morawica and 1.27 for Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Moravia Morawica vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Moravia Morawica or draw is 56%.