Moss vs Raufoss Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Moss vs Raufoss
Model pick: Moss (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Moss | Raufoss |
|---|
| League position | #11 (17 pts) | #14 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.8 | 0.7 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 14% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Moss shown at home, Raufoss shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Moss — last 5
LDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Raufoss — last 5
LWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Moss (home) | Raufoss (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-2 in 6 (1.5 / 1.8 goals per game) | 1-0-6 in 7 (0.7 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 66% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Moss or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Raufoss or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Moss clean sheet | 27% |
| Raufoss clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Moss is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Moss are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Moss vs Raufoss — FAQ
Who will win Moss vs Raufoss?
Our statistical model makes Moss the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Moss 41%, draw 26%, Raufoss 33%.
Will both teams score in Moss vs Raufoss?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Moss vs Raufoss?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Moss and 1.3 for Raufoss — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Moss vs Raufoss?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Moss or draw is 68%.