Moss vs Sogndal Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Moss vs Sogndal
Model pick: Moss (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.51
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Moss | Sogndal |
|---|
| League position | #13 (18 pts) | #10 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 2.0 | 1.3 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Moss shown at home, Sogndal shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Moss — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Sogndal — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Moss (home) | Sogndal (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-3 in 8 (1.6 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-2-6 in 9 (1.3 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Moss or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Sogndal or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Moss clean sheet | 22% |
| Sogndal clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Moss is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Moss are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Moss vs Sogndal — FAQ
Who will win Moss vs Sogndal?
Our statistical model makes Moss the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Moss 38%, draw 24%, Sogndal 38%.
Will both teams score in Moss vs Sogndal?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Moss vs Sogndal?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Moss and 1.51 for Sogndal — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Moss vs Sogndal?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Moss or draw is 62%.