Motala vs Stenungsunds Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Sweden) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (SWEDEN)
Motala vs Stenungsunds
Model pick: Stenungsunds (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.96 – 2.34
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Motala | Stenungsunds |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Motala shown at home, Stenungsunds shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Motala — last 5
DLDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Stenungsunds — last 5
DWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Motala (home) | Stenungsunds (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Division 2 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.33
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Division 2 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.96 vs 2.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Motala or draw (1X) | 32% |
| Double chance — Stenungsunds or draw (X2) | 86% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Motala clean sheet | 10% |
| Stenungsunds clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stenungsunds is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Despite playing away, Stenungsunds edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Motala vs Stenungsunds — FAQ
Who will win Motala vs Stenungsunds?
Our statistical model makes Stenungsunds the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Motala 16%, draw 20%, Stenungsunds 63%.
Will both teams score in Motala vs Stenungsunds?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Motala vs Stenungsunds?
Expected goals are 0.96 for Motala and 2.34 for Stenungsunds — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Motala vs Stenungsunds?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (10%). Double chance for Motala or draw is 32%.