Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok
Model pick: Jagiellonia Białystok (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.7
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Motor Lublin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #17 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 0.2 |
*Motor Lublin shown at home, Jagiellonia Białystok shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Motor Lublin — last 5
DLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Jagiellonia Białystok — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Motor Lublin (home) | Jagiellonia Białystok (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-3-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Karol Czubak (15) | Jesus Imaz (5) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Motor Lublin or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Motor Lublin clean sheet | 18% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jagiellonia Białystok is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Jagiellonia Białystok edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok — FAQ
Who will win Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Our statistical model makes Jagiellonia Białystok the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Motor Lublin 34%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Białystok 41%.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Motor Lublin and 1.7 for Jagiellonia Białystok — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Motor Lublin or draw is 57%.