Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa
Model pick: Legia Warszawa (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Motor Lublin | Legia Warszawa |
|---|
| League position | #15 (5 pts) | #28 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Motor Lublin shown at home, Legia Warszawa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Motor Lublin — last 5
LLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Legia Warszawa — last 5
DDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Motor Lublin (home) | Legia Warszawa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Karol Czubak (15) | – |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Motor Lublin or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Legia Warszawa or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Motor Lublin clean sheet | 22% |
| Legia Warszawa clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Legia Warszawa is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Legia Warszawa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa — FAQ
Who will win Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model makes Legia Warszawa the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Motor Lublin 29%, draw 26%, Legia Warszawa 45%.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Motor Lublin and 1.53 for Legia Warszawa — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Motor Lublin or draw is 57%.