Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice
Model pick: Motor Lublin (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Motor Lublin | Piast Gliwice |
|---|
| League position | #13 (5 pts) | #14 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
*Motor Lublin shown at home, Piast Gliwice shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Motor Lublin — last 5
DLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Piast Gliwice — last 5
LWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Motor Lublin (home) | Piast Gliwice (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Karol Czubak (15) | – |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Motor Lublin or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Piast Gliwice or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Motor Lublin clean sheet | 30% |
| Piast Gliwice clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Motor Lublin is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Motor Lublin are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice — FAQ
Who will win Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model makes Motor Lublin the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Motor Lublin 40%, draw 27%, Piast Gliwice 33%.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Motor Lublin and 1.21 for Piast Gliwice — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Motor Lublin or draw is 68%.