MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers
Model pick: MSV Duisburg (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 1.53
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| MSV Duisburg | Würzburger Kickers |
|---|
| League position | #1 (6 pts) | #3 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*MSV Duisburg shown at home, Würzburger Kickers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
MSV Duisburg — last 5
DDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Würzburger Kickers — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | MSV Duisburg (home) | Würzburger Kickers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Conor Noss (7) | – |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — MSV Duisburg or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Würzburger Kickers or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| MSV Duisburg clean sheet | 22% |
| Würzburger Kickers clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
MSV Duisburg is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. MSV Duisburg are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers — FAQ
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers?
Our statistical model makes MSV Duisburg the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: MSV Duisburg 56%, draw 22%, Würzburger Kickers 23%.
Will both teams score in MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers?
Expected goals are 1.68 for MSV Duisburg and 1.53 for Würzburger Kickers — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for MSV Duisburg or draw is 65%.