MTK vs Kisvárda Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
MTK vs Kisvárda
Model pick: MTK (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| MTK | Kisvárda |
|---|
| League position | #4 (9 pts) | #10 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*MTK shown at home, Kisvárda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
MTK — last 5
DLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Kisvárda — last 5
DWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | MTK (home) | Kisvárda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (2.3 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — MTK or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Kisvárda or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| MTK clean sheet | 31% |
| Kisvárda clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
MTK is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. MTK are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ MTK vs Kisvárda — FAQ
Who will win MTK vs Kisvárda?
Our statistical model makes MTK the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: MTK 46%, draw 26%, Kisvárda 28%.
Will both teams score in MTK vs Kisvárda?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in MTK vs Kisvárda?
Expected goals are 1.66 for MTK and 1.18 for Kisvárda — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in MTK vs Kisvárda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for MTK or draw is 73%.