MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus
Model pick: MTK (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.83 – 1.26
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| MTK | Nyíregyháza Spartacus |
|---|
| League position | #6 (5 pts) | #4 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.5 | 0.0 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*MTK shown at home, Nyíregyháza Spartacus shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
MTK — last 5
DWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Nyíregyháza Spartacus — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | MTK (home) | Nyíregyháza Spartacus (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.83 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — MTK or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Nyíregyháza Spartacus or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| MTK clean sheet | 28% |
| Nyíregyháza Spartacus clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
MTK is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. MTK are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus — FAQ
Who will win MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus?
Our statistical model makes MTK the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: MTK 43%, draw 26%, Nyíregyháza Spartacus 32%.
Will both teams score in MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus?
Expected goals are 1.83 for MTK and 1.26 for Nyíregyháza Spartacus — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in MTK vs Nyíregyháza Spartacus?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for MTK or draw is 74%.