MTK vs Puskás Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
MTK vs Puskás
Model pick: Puskás (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.56
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| MTK | Puskás |
|---|
| League position | #1 (4 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*MTK shown at home, Puskás shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
MTK — last 5
LWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Puskás — last 5
WDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | MTK (home) | Puskás (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — MTK or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Puskás or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| MTK clean sheet | 21% |
| Puskás clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Puskás is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Puskás edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ MTK vs Puskás — FAQ
Who will win MTK vs Puskás?
Our statistical model makes Puskás the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: MTK 34%, draw 26%, Puskás 41%.
Will both teams score in MTK vs Puskás?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in MTK vs Puskás?
Expected goals are 1.37 for MTK and 1.56 for Puskás — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in MTK vs Puskás?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for MTK or draw is 58%.