MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Model pick: MTK (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.44
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| MTK | Zalaegerszegi TE |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*MTK shown at home, Zalaegerszegi TE shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
MTK — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Zalaegerszegi TE — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | MTK (home) | Zalaegerszegi TE (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 61% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 1.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — MTK or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Zalaegerszegi TE or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| MTK clean sheet | 24% |
| Zalaegerszegi TE clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
MTK is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. MTK are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE — FAQ
Who will win MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE?
Our statistical model makes MTK the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: MTK 40%, draw 26%, Zalaegerszegi TE 35%.
Will both teams score in MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE?
Expected goals are 1.57 for MTK and 1.44 for Zalaegerszegi TE — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in MTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for MTK or draw is 65%.