Mura vs Koper Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Mura vs Koper
Model pick: Koper (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.63
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mura | Koper |
|---|
| League position | #5 (7 pts) | #6 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Mura shown at home, Koper shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mura — last 5
DWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Koper — last 5
WDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mura (home) | Koper (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 53%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Mura or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Koper or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Mura clean sheet | 20% |
| Koper clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Koper is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Koper edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mura vs Koper — FAQ
Who will win Mura vs Koper?
Our statistical model makes Koper the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Mura 25%, draw 26%, Koper 50%.
Will both teams score in Mura vs Koper?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mura vs Koper?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Mura and 1.63 for Koper — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mura vs Koper?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Mura or draw is 50%.