Mura vs Olimpija Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Mura vs Olimpija
Model pick: Olimpija (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.47
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mura | Olimpija |
|---|
| League position | #5 (1 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Mura shown at home, Olimpija shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mura — last 5
WLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpija — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mura (home) | Olimpija (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 42% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 1.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Mura or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Olimpija or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Mura clean sheet | 23% |
| Olimpija clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpija is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Olimpija edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mura vs Olimpija — FAQ
Who will win Mura vs Olimpija?
Our statistical model makes Olimpija the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Mura 25%, draw 28%, Olimpija 48%.
Will both teams score in Mura vs Olimpija?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mura vs Olimpija?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Mura and 1.47 for Olimpija — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mura vs Olimpija?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Mura or draw is 50%.