Mushuc Runa vs Delfin Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Mushuc Runa vs Delfin
Model pick: Mushuc Runa (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.51 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mushuc Runa | Delfin |
|---|
| League position | #9 (33 pts) | #15 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Mushuc Runa shown at home, Delfin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mushuc Runa — last 5
LWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Delfin — last 5
LLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mushuc Runa (home) | Delfin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-5-3 in 13 (1.1 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-3-9 in 13 (0.6 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Edmundo Carrillo Morales Ronie (9) | Xavier Ushina Goyes Kevin (3) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.51 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Mushuc Runa or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Delfin or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Mushuc Runa clean sheet | 36% |
| Delfin clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mushuc Runa is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Mushuc Runa are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mushuc Runa vs Delfin — FAQ
Who will win Mushuc Runa vs Delfin?
Our statistical model makes Mushuc Runa the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Mushuc Runa 46%, draw 27%, Delfin 26%.
Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Delfin?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mushuc Runa vs Delfin?
Expected goals are 1.51 for Mushuc Runa and 1.01 for Delfin — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mushuc Runa vs Delfin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Mushuc Runa or draw is 75%.