Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte
Model pick: Mushuc Runa (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mushuc Runa | Leones del Norte |
|---|
| League position | #8 (36 pts) | #10 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Mushuc Runa shown at home, Leones del Norte shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mushuc Runa — last 5
WWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Leones del Norte — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mushuc Runa (home) | Leones del Norte (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-5-3 in 14 (1.1 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-3-7 in 14 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 67% |
| Top scorer | Edmundo Carrillo Morales Ronie (9) | – |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Mushuc Runa or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Leones del Norte or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Mushuc Runa clean sheet | 29% |
| Leones del Norte clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mushuc Runa is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Mushuc Runa are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte — FAQ
Who will win Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte?
Our statistical model makes Mushuc Runa the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Mushuc Runa 44%, draw 26%, Leones del Norte 31%.
Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Mushuc Runa and 1.24 for Leones del Norte — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Mushuc Runa or draw is 70%.