Mushuc Runa vs Libertad Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
Model pick: Mushuc Runa (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mushuc Runa | Libertad |
|---|
| League position | #12 (25 pts) | #14 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
*Mushuc Runa shown at home, Libertad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mushuc Runa — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Libertad — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mushuc Runa (home) | Libertad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-2 in 11 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-4-5 in 10 (0.8 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Edmundo Carrillo Morales Ronie (8) | – |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Mushuc Runa or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Libertad or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Mushuc Runa clean sheet | 31% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mushuc Runa is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Mushuc Runa are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mushuc Runa vs Libertad — FAQ
Who will win Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?
Our statistical model makes Mushuc Runa the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Mushuc Runa 43%, draw 26%, Libertad 30%.
Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?
Expected goals are 1.52 for Mushuc Runa and 1.18 for Libertad — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Mushuc Runa or draw is 70%.