Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia
Model pick: FCI Levadia (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.46
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nõmme Kalju | FCI Levadia |
|---|
| League position | #2 (44 pts) | #1 (56 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 83% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.4 / 0.6 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
*Nõmme Kalju shown at home, FCI Levadia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nõmme Kalju — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
FCI Levadia — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 44% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nõmme Kalju (home) | FCI Levadia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-3 in 12 (2.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 10-2-0 in 12 (2.4 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nõmme Kalju or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — FCI Levadia or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Nõmme Kalju clean sheet | 23% |
| FCI Levadia clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FCI Levadia is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, FCI Levadia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia — FAQ
Who will win Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia?
Our statistical model makes FCI Levadia the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Nõmme Kalju 24%, draw 25%, FCI Levadia 51%.
Will both teams score in Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Nõmme Kalju and 1.46 for FCI Levadia — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nõmme Kalju vs FCI Levadia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Nõmme Kalju or draw is 55%.