Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United
Model pick: Nõmme Kalju (80%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.95 – 0.55
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nõmme Kalju | Nõmme United |
|---|
| League position | #3 (44 pts) | #8 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 46% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Nõmme Kalju shown at home, Nõmme United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nõmme Kalju — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Nõmme United — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 5% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nõmme Kalju (home) | Nõmme United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-4 in 13 (2.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-1-7 in 12 (1.3 / 2.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 5% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 45% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.95 vs 0.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Nõmme Kalju or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Nõmme United or draw (X2) | 15% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Nõmme Kalju clean sheet | 58% |
| Nõmme United clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nõmme Kalju is the model's most likely outcome at
80%. Nõmme Kalju are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United — FAQ
Who will win Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
Our statistical model makes Nõmme Kalju the most likely result at 80%. Full probabilities: Nõmme Kalju 80%, draw 13%, Nõmme United 6%.
Will both teams score in Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
Expected goals are 2.95 for Nõmme Kalju and 0.55 for Nõmme United — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nõmme Kalju vs Nõmme United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Nõmme Kalju or draw is 96%.