Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka
Model pick: Nõmme Kalju (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.5 – 0.86
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nõmme Kalju | Tammeka |
|---|
| League position | #3 (35 pts) | #6 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.0 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 5.0 / 1.6 |
*Nõmme Kalju shown at home, Tammeka shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nõmme Kalju — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Tammeka — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nõmme Kalju (home) | Tammeka (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.9 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.1 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.5 vs 0.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Nõmme Kalju or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Tammeka or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Nõmme Kalju clean sheet | 42% |
| Tammeka clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nõmme Kalju is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Nõmme Kalju are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka — FAQ
Who will win Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka?
Our statistical model makes Nõmme Kalju the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Nõmme Kalju 64%, draw 21%, Tammeka 15%.
Will both teams score in Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka?
Expected goals are 2.5 for Nõmme Kalju and 0.86 for Tammeka — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Nõmme Kalju or draw is 89%.