Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus
Model pick: Nõmme Kalju (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.18 – 0.83
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nõmme Kalju | Vaprus |
|---|
| League position | #2 (41 pts) | #5 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Nõmme Kalju shown at home, Vaprus shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nõmme Kalju — last 5
DLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Vaprus — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nõmme Kalju (home) | Vaprus (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (2.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-1-6 in 10 (1.0 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 67% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.18 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nõmme Kalju or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Vaprus or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Nõmme Kalju clean sheet | 44% |
| Vaprus clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nõmme Kalju is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Nõmme Kalju are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus — FAQ
Who will win Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus?
Our statistical model makes Nõmme Kalju the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Nõmme Kalju 64%, draw 20%, Vaprus 15%.
Will both teams score in Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus?
Expected goals are 2.18 for Nõmme Kalju and 0.83 for Vaprus — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nõmme Kalju vs Vaprus?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Nõmme Kalju or draw is 87%.