Nõmme United vs Trans Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Nõmme United vs Trans
Model pick: Nõmme United (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.67
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nõmme United | Trans |
|---|
| League position | #7 (25 pts) | #10 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.4 / 2.2 | 0.2 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.8 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Nõmme United shown at home, Trans shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nõmme United — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 10% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Trans — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nõmme United (home) | Trans (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-6 in 10 (2.4 / 2.2 goals per game) | 0-1-9 in 10 (0.2 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 10% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 60% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nõmme United or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Trans or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Nõmme United clean sheet | 19% |
| Trans clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nõmme United is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Nõmme United are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nõmme United vs Trans — FAQ
Who will win Nõmme United vs Trans?
Our statistical model makes Nõmme United the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Nõmme United 41%, draw 25%, Trans 34%.
Will both teams score in Nõmme United vs Trans?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nõmme United vs Trans?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Nõmme United and 1.67 for Trans — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nõmme United vs Trans?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Nõmme United or draw is 47%.