NAC Breda vs Ajax II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
NAC Breda vs Ajax II
Model pick: NAC Breda (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.06 – 1.15
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| NAC Breda | Ajax II |
|---|
| League position | #17 (29 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*NAC Breda shown at home, Ajax II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
NAC Breda — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Ajax II — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 73% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | NAC Breda (home) | Ajax II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 73% |
| Top scorer | – | Kayden Wolff (5) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.06 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — NAC Breda or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Ajax II or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| NAC Breda clean sheet | 32% |
| Ajax II clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
NAC Breda is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. NAC Breda are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ NAC Breda vs Ajax II — FAQ
Who will win NAC Breda vs Ajax II?
Our statistical model makes NAC Breda the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: NAC Breda 55%, draw 23%, Ajax II 23%.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Ajax II?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in NAC Breda vs Ajax II?
Expected goals are 2.06 for NAC Breda and 1.15 for Ajax II — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in NAC Breda vs Ajax II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for NAC Breda or draw is 79%.