Nafta vs Mura Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Nafta vs Mura
Model pick: Mura (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nafta | Mura |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #5 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Nafta shown at home, Mura shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nafta — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Mura — last 5
LDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nafta (home) | Mura (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 48% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Nafta or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Mura or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Nafta clean sheet | 29% |
| Mura clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mura is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Mura edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nafta vs Mura — FAQ
Who will win Nafta vs Mura?
Our statistical model makes Mura the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Nafta 31%, draw 29%, Mura 40%.
Will both teams score in Nafta vs Mura?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nafta vs Mura?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Nafta and 1.25 for Mura — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nafta vs Mura?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Nafta or draw is 58%.