Nafta vs Radomlje Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Nafta vs Radomlje
Model pick: Nafta (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.37
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nafta | Radomlje |
|---|
| League position | #7 (7 pts) | #10 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.3 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Nafta shown at home, Radomlje shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nafta — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 12% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Radomlje — last 5
DLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nafta (home) | Radomlje (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (2.0 / 2.3 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 12% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nafta or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Radomlje or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Nafta clean sheet | 25% |
| Radomlje clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nafta is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Nafta are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nafta vs Radomlje — FAQ
Who will win Nafta vs Radomlje?
Our statistical model makes Nafta the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Nafta 38%, draw 26%, Radomlje 36%.
Will both teams score in Nafta vs Radomlje?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nafta vs Radomlje?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Nafta and 1.37 for Radomlje — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nafta vs Radomlje?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Nafta or draw is 64%.