Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen
Model pick: Guangxi Hengchen (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.78
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nanjing City | Guangxi Hengchen |
|---|
| League position | #12 (21 pts) | #5 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 2.2 |
*Nanjing City shown at home, Guangxi Hengchen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nanjing City — last 5
LDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Guangxi Hengchen — last 5
DWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nanjing City (home) | Guangxi Hengchen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.4 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.0
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Nanjing City or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Guangxi Hengchen or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Nanjing City clean sheet | 17% |
| Guangxi Hengchen clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guangxi Hengchen is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Guangxi Hengchen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen — FAQ
Who will win Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?
Our statistical model makes Guangxi Hengchen the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Nanjing City 31%, draw 24%, Guangxi Hengchen 45%.
Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Nanjing City and 1.78 for Guangxi Hengchen — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Nanjing City or draw is 53%.