Nantes vs Rodez Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Nantes vs Rodez
Model pick: Rodez (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.58 – 1.68
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nantes | Rodez |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Nantes shown at home, Rodez shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nantes — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Rodez — last 5
WDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nantes (home) | Rodez (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% |
| Top scorer | – | Ibrahima Balde (12) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.58 vs 1.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Nantes or draw (1X) | 36% |
| Double chance — Rodez or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Nantes clean sheet | 19% |
| Rodez clean sheet | 56% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rodez is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Despite playing away, Rodez edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nantes vs Rodez — FAQ
Who will win Nantes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model makes Rodez the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Nantes 15%, draw 25%, Rodez 60%.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Rodez?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nantes vs Rodez?
Expected goals are 0.58 for Nantes and 1.68 for Rodez — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nantes vs Rodez?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Nantes or draw is 36%.