Nasaf vs Kokand-1912 Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Nasaf vs Kokand-1912
Model pick: Nasaf (66%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.89 – 0.49
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nasaf | Kokand-1912 |
|---|
| League position | #8 (21 pts) | #15 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Nasaf shown at home, Kokand-1912 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nasaf — last 5
LDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 55% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Kokand-1912 — last 5
WDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nasaf (home) | Kokand-1912 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (0.9 / 0.7 goals per game) | 0-3-5 in 8 (0.9 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 55% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Sardorbek Bakhromov (2) | – |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.89 vs 0.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Nasaf or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Kokand-1912 or draw (X2) | 29% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Nasaf clean sheet | 61% |
| Kokand-1912 clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nasaf is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Nasaf are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nasaf vs Kokand-1912 — FAQ
Who will win Nasaf vs Kokand-1912?
Our statistical model makes Nasaf the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Nasaf 66%, draw 22%, Kokand-1912 11%.
Will both teams score in Nasaf vs Kokand-1912?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nasaf vs Kokand-1912?
Expected goals are 1.89 for Nasaf and 0.49 for Kokand-1912 — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nasaf vs Kokand-1912?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Nasaf or draw is 91%.