Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 16:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal
Model pick: Esteghlal (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.64 – 1.28
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nassaji Mazandaran | Esteghlal |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #3 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Nassaji Mazandaran shown at home, Esteghlal shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nassaji Mazandaran — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 28% of home games go over 2.5.
Esteghlal — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 42% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nassaji Mazandaran (home) | Esteghlal (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 35% |
| Top scorer | – | Jasir Asani (2) |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.64 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Nassaji Mazandaran or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Esteghlal or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Nassaji Mazandaran clean sheet | 28% |
| Esteghlal clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Esteghlal is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Esteghlal edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal — FAQ
Who will win Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal?
Our statistical model makes Esteghlal the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Nassaji Mazandaran 21%, draw 30%, Esteghlal 49%.
Will both teams score in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal?
Expected goals are 0.64 for Nassaji Mazandaran and 1.28 for Esteghlal — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Esteghlal?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Nassaji Mazandaran or draw is 48%.