Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Model pick: Nassaji Mazandaran (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 0.82
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nassaji Mazandaran | Shams Azar Qazvin |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #13 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
*Nassaji Mazandaran shown at home, Shams Azar Qazvin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nassaji Mazandaran — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 27% of home games go over 2.5.
Shams Azar Qazvin — last 5
DLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 26% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nassaji Mazandaran (home) | Shams Azar Qazvin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 26% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Nassaji Mazandaran or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Shams Azar Qazvin or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Nassaji Mazandaran clean sheet | 44% |
| Shams Azar Qazvin clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nassaji Mazandaran is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. Nassaji Mazandaran are backed at home, where they average 0.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin — FAQ
Who will win Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our statistical model makes Nassaji Mazandaran the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: Nassaji Mazandaran 34%, draw 34%, Shams Azar Qazvin 32%.
Will both teams score in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Nassaji Mazandaran and 0.82 for Shams Azar Qazvin — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (18%). Double chance for Nassaji Mazandaran or draw is 68%.