NEC vs Excelsior Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
NEC vs Excelsior
Model pick: NEC (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.37 – 1.16
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| NEC | Excelsior |
|---|
| League position | #10 (3 pts) | #9 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 3.6 / 1.4 |
*NEC shown at home, Excelsior shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
NEC — last 5
LDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Excelsior — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | NEC (home) | Excelsior (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 69% |
| Top scorer | Basar Onal (1) | – |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.37 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — NEC or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Excelsior or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| NEC clean sheet | 31% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
NEC is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. NEC are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ NEC vs Excelsior — FAQ
Who will win NEC vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model makes NEC the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: NEC 60%, draw 21%, Excelsior 20%.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in NEC vs Excelsior?
Expected goals are 2.37 for NEC and 1.16 for Excelsior — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for NEC or draw is 83%.