NEC vs Feyenoord Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
NEC vs Feyenoord
Model pick: Feyenoord (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.84
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| NEC | Feyenoord |
|---|
| League position | #7 (6 pts) | #29 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*NEC shown at home, Feyenoord shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
NEC — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Feyenoord — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | NEC (home) | Feyenoord (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-4 in 4 (1.0 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Ahmetcan Kaplan (1) | Tsuyoshi Watanabe (2) |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — NEC or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Feyenoord or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| NEC clean sheet | 16% |
| Feyenoord clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Feyenoord is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Feyenoord edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ NEC vs Feyenoord — FAQ
Who will win NEC vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model makes Feyenoord the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: NEC 32%, draw 24%, Feyenoord 44%.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Feyenoord?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in NEC vs Feyenoord?
Expected goals are 1.49 for NEC and 1.84 for Feyenoord — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in NEC vs Feyenoord?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for NEC or draw is 54%.