Neftchi vs Surkhon Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Neftchi vs Surkhon
Model pick: Neftchi (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.51 – 0.58
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Neftchi | Surkhon |
|---|
| League position | #1 (45 pts) | #12 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.6 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 80% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 1.0 |
*Neftchi shown at home, Surkhon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Neftchi — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Surkhon — last 5
LLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Neftchi (home) | Surkhon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-1-1 in 10 (2.6 / 0.5 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (0.9 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 40% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.51 vs 0.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Neftchi or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Neftchi clean sheet | 56% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Neftchi is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Neftchi are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Neftchi vs Surkhon — FAQ
Who will win Neftchi vs Surkhon?
Our statistical model makes Neftchi the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Neftchi 56%, draw 27%, Surkhon 16%.
Will both teams score in Neftchi vs Surkhon?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Neftchi vs Surkhon?
Expected goals are 1.51 for Neftchi and 0.58 for Surkhon — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Neftchi vs Surkhon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Neftchi or draw is 86%.