Neftekhimik vs Ufa Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Neftekhimik vs Ufa
Model pick: Ufa (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 1.47
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Neftekhimik | Ufa |
|---|
| League position | #14 (6 pts) | #8 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Neftekhimik shown at home, Ufa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Neftekhimik — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Ufa — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 31% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Neftekhimik (home) | Ufa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 0-2-1 in 3 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 31% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 1.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Neftekhimik or draw (1X) | 44% |
| Double chance — Ufa or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Neftekhimik clean sheet | 23% |
| Ufa clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ufa is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Ufa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Neftekhimik vs Ufa — FAQ
Who will win Neftekhimik vs Ufa?
Our statistical model makes Ufa the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Neftekhimik 19%, draw 28%, Ufa 53%.
Will both teams score in Neftekhimik vs Ufa?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Neftekhimik vs Ufa?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Neftekhimik and 1.47 for Ufa — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Neftekhimik vs Ufa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Neftekhimik or draw is 44%.