Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II Prediction & Preview
V AFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
V AFG (BULGARIA)
Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II
Model pick: Neftohimik (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.92 – 1.31
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Neftohimik | Lok. Plovdiv II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.25 / 1.5 |
*Neftohimik shown at home, Lok. Plovdiv II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Neftohimik — last 5
WLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Lok. Plovdiv II — last 5
LWLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Neftohimik (home) | Lok. Plovdiv II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 100% |
V AFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.17
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these V AFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.92 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Neftohimik or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Lok. Plovdiv II or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Neftohimik clean sheet | 27% |
| Lok. Plovdiv II clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Neftohimik is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Neftohimik are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II — FAQ
Who will win Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II?
Our statistical model makes Neftohimik the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Neftohimik 49%, draw 24%, Lok. Plovdiv II 27%.
Will both teams score in Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II?
Expected goals are 1.92 for Neftohimik and 1.31 for Lok. Plovdiv II — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Neftohimik vs Lok. Plovdiv II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Neftohimik or draw is 74%.