Neratovice vs Varnsdorf Prediction & Preview
Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 08:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 3 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Neratovice vs Varnsdorf
Model pick: Neratovice (93%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.26 – 0.34
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Neratovice | Varnsdorf |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 0.8 |
*Neratovice shown at home, Varnsdorf shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Neratovice — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Varnsdorf — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Neratovice (home) | Varnsdorf (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.26 vs 0.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Neratovice or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Varnsdorf or draw (X2) | 4% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Neratovice clean sheet | 71% |
| Varnsdorf clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Neratovice is the model's most likely outcome at
93%. Neratovice are backed at home, where they average 2.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Neratovice vs Varnsdorf — FAQ
Who will win Neratovice vs Varnsdorf?
Our statistical model makes Neratovice the most likely result at 93%. Full probabilities: Neratovice 93%, draw 5%, Varnsdorf 2%.
Will both teams score in Neratovice vs Varnsdorf?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Neratovice vs Varnsdorf?
Expected goals are 4.26 for Neratovice and 0.34 for Varnsdorf — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Neratovice vs Varnsdorf?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-0 (14%). Double chance for Neratovice or draw is 99%.