Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist Prediction & Preview
B PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
B PFG (BULGARIA)
Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist
Model pick: Nesebar (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.06 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nesebar | Rilski Sportist |
|---|
| League position | #11 (10 pts) | #12 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.8 / 1.5 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Nesebar shown at home, Rilski Sportist shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nesebar — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Rilski Sportist — last 5
DDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nesebar (home) | Rilski Sportist (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (2.8 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-2-1 in 3 (0.3 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
B PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.56
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%
Use these B PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.06 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Nesebar or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Rilski Sportist or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Nesebar clean sheet | 43% |
| Rilski Sportist clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nesebar is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Nesebar are backed at home, where they average 2.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist — FAQ
Who will win Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist?
Our statistical model makes Nesebar the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Nesebar 39%, draw 32%, Rilski Sportist 29%.
Will both teams score in Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist?
Expected goals are 1.06 for Nesebar and 0.85 for Rilski Sportist — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nesebar vs Rilski Sportist?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Nesebar or draw is 71%.