New Mexico vs FC Tulsa Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
New Mexico vs FC Tulsa
Model pick: New Mexico (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.57 – 0.54
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New Mexico | FC Tulsa |
|---|
| League position | #3 (30 pts) | #4 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 43% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
*New Mexico shown at home, FC Tulsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New Mexico — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
FC Tulsa — last 5
WDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New Mexico (home) | FC Tulsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-1 in 8 (1.6 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.3 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.57 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — New Mexico or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — FC Tulsa or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 56% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| New Mexico clean sheet | 58% |
| FC Tulsa clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New Mexico is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. New Mexico are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ New Mexico vs FC Tulsa — FAQ
Who will win New Mexico vs FC Tulsa?
Our statistical model makes New Mexico the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: New Mexico 37%, draw 33%, FC Tulsa 30%.
Will both teams score in New Mexico vs FC Tulsa?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in New Mexico vs FC Tulsa?
Expected goals are 0.57 for New Mexico and 0.54 for FC Tulsa — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New Mexico vs FC Tulsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (33%). Double chance for New Mexico or draw is 73%.